A top non-partisan political handicapper is forecasting that Democrats face a serious challenge holding on to four crucial Senate seats as they attempt to protect their razor-thin majority in the chamber in the 2024 elections.
The first Senate race ratings of the new cycle by Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics are the latest by a leading election handicapper to point to a rough road ahead for the Democrats.
Democrats flipped a GOP Senate seat in Pennsylvania in November’s midterm elections, and they currently hold a 51-49 majority in the chamber – which includes three independent senators who caucus with the Democratic conference.
But Republicans are energized by a very favorable Senate map in 2024, with Democrats defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs. Three of those seats are in red states former President Donald Trump easily carried over President Biden in 2020: Ohio, West Virginia and Montana. Five other Democratic seats are in key swing states narrowly carried by Biden in the 2020 presidential election: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Michigan, longtime Democratic Sen Debbie Stabenow announced she’ll retire after next year rather than seek re-election.
According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, three Democratic held seats are toss-ups while one is ranked as lean Republican.
“Democrats are playing much more defense than Republicans,” Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor, highlighted. “Of the current Democratic seats, West Virginia starts as the clearest Republican takeover opportunity, with Arizona, Montana, and Ohio as Toss-ups.”
And Kondik notes that “the GOP has no Toss-up or Leans Republican seats to defend at the starting gate.”
The four Democratic senators who face challenging re-elections are Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona.
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