Here Are the 7 Senate Seats Most Likely To Flip

Polls indicate many Senate races closer than expected earlier this year, but seven states represent pickup opportunities for Republicans.

Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are within grasp for the GOP.

Arizona

The Grand Canyon State’s Senate race is trending Republican as Election Day draws nearer, according to polls followed by Real Clear Politics. The average margin appears to favor the Democrat, Mark Kelly, by 2.5 percent but a closer look reveals a different story.

Two polls from the end of September through October 11 show Arizona’s incumbent Democratic senator with a respectable lead of three and four percent. Two more recent polls, however, show the lead shrinking each week. Last week’s Daily Wire-Trafalgar poll of 1,078 likely voters puts Kelly ahead by just one point, leading Real Clear Politics to project the seat a GOP pickup in November.

Georgia

The Senate seat currently held by Democrat Raphael Warnock is rated a toss-up by Real Clear Politics, based on polls that continue to show leads within the margin of error.

Former NFL running back, Herschel Walker, expected an easier going against the socialistic reverend who won a Senate runoff in January 2021 that gave Democrats control. Walker has painted Warnock with the brush of Bidenomics, which he claims is responsible for record inflation that, coupled with continuing interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, are causing economic pain for millions of Americans.

Walker’s campaign has stumbled in the previously staunchly red state, dogged by earlier statements of his. The biggest damage seemed to come, however, from claims by his son’s mother that Walker pressured her to get an abortion, which she alleged he paid for.

The widely disseminated claim has hurt him in the Bible belt state, especially since he publicly opposes abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.

New Hampshire

The Granite State is still a long shot, especially since Republican political action committees have withdrawn funding earmarked for ads there. The Senate Leadership Fund announced it would cut $5.6 million of ad buys, according to a Fox News report. Earlier in the race, the National Republican Senatorial Committee scrapped plans to spend $23 million for ads in the Senate race.

Polls have consistently shown Republican Don Bolduc trailing Democratic incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan. The incumbent Democrat was considered one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents in the country earlier in the cycle, according to a CNN report. That view, based on the premise that state Senate President Chuck Morse would be the GOP nominee, shifted after Bolduc won the primary.

Bolduc supporters saw a ray of hope in the results of a poll conducted last week of 600 likely voters that shows Bolduc only trailing Hassan by two percent. Critics note the Farbrizio, Lee & Associates poll was funded by Bolduc, so they question the results. Real Clear Politics project Hassan will retain her seat but rank the race a toss-up.

Nevada

Sen. Catherine Masto (D-NV) is a first-term senator facing former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, and the contest has been close all along.

With just two weeks left until Election Day, Laxalt is a slight polling favorite with a one-point lead over the incumbent Democrat. Real Clear Politics poll results show the Republican has eked out slender leads in three of the four polls conducted in the last month.

Real Clear Politics projects the seat will be a pickup for Republicans in November while rating the race a toss-up.

Democrats are viewed as villains for locking down the state to combat the coronavirus pandemic, which hurt many voters. Many small and medium businesses were forced to close, costing millions of jobs in the state that relies heavily on customer service jobs related to the gaming industry and tourism.

Ohio

Trump-supported candidate J.D. Vance has shot himself in the foot with various comments during the race, but looks likely to win the seat. Ohio has trended solidly red in recent elections, which is reflected in Real Clear Politics projecting the race a GOP hold with a leaning-Republican ranking.

Vance did not help his chances by barely campaigning after winning the Republican primary, according to a New York Times report.

“From that point as he won in May, he seemed to be running a stealth campaign, kind of like a former presidential candidate in 2020 was doing,” said David G. Arredondo, the executive committee chairman of the Lorain County Republican Party, referring to then-candidate Joe Biden’s limited in-person campaigning in the 2020 general election.

Pennsylvania

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman looked like he was going to flip Pennsylvania’s Senate seat to the Democrats early in the campaign. The dynamic has shifted considerably since then. Dr. Mehmet Oz was portrayed as a rich celebrity from New Jersey who was clueless about Pennsylvania. Polls showed him trailing by a ton in the early days of the race.

Fetterman did not campaign for many weeks after suffering a stroke shortly after his primary win. Concerns about his health, raised by Republicans, coupled with GOP PACs upping their ad buys in the Keystone State have helped Oz make it a race.

Real Clear Politics projects Republicans will manage to hold onto the Senate seat, ranking the race a toss-up.

Wisconsin

Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson appears likely to survive missteps earlier in the campaign to edge out Democrat Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, according to a report in The Hill.

Barnes led by as much as seven percent earlier in the election race but Johnson benefited from a barrage of GOP ads portraying Barnes as soft on crime. Whether it was the ads or a softening economy, Johnson has turned the tide to lead his Democratic opponent by an average four points.

Real Clear Politics projects the Republicans will hold this seat, also, while ranking the race a toss-up.