Arizona Senate Democrat turned Independent Kyrsten Sinema has an uphill battle in fighting to retain her seat in the 2024 election.
Once courted by the GOP, Sinema elected to remain an independent and will likely face a challenge by former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego in a state where Independents have traditionally not done well.
On Monday, NBC News reported that according to “a donor memo,” Sinema’s “path to victory” hinges on winning over the majority of independent and Republican voters.
According to the memo reported by NBC, Sinema’s campaign goals include securing the votes of 60% to 70% of independents, 25% to 35% of Republicans and 10% to 20% of Democrats.
The very ambitious goals were shared in her donor memo:
“Kyrsten Sinema has proven she knows how to win in Arizona. As an Independent, she appeals to voters who refuse to identify with either political party or dislike candidates nominated in partisan primaries who cater to the political fringes.”
The memo adds: “If the parties nominate extremists, as expected, Kyrsten will win a majority of IND, at least a third of REP, and a percentage of DEM voters — making her the first Independent to win a three-way statewide race in American history.”
A senior national political reporter for NBC News, Sahil Kapur, noted that Sinema claims both parties will nominate “extremists,” leaving her to attract the majority in the state who are moderate or centrist in their political ideology.
However, as Sinema highlights her political accomplishments in her two-page memo, she mentions several issues that align herself with the progressive left, including voting for President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), advocating gun reform laws and advancing same-sex marriage legislation.
After citing Sinema’s political accomplishments, Sinema’s memo reads: Kyrsten Delivers for Arizona.”
The Daily Caller reported that Sinema has not officially declared her candidacy but has “been actively fundraising” and has more than $10 million cash on hand to advance her campaign.
An Aug. 3 survey by Noble Predictive Insights projected that both Sinema and Lake would lose to Gallego in a three-way matchup. The survey projected that Gallego would secure 34% of the vote, Sinema would secure 26% of the vote, and Lake would secure 25%.
The survey also showed that Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R) would beat both Lake and Sinema if he decided to enter the race.
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