Donald J. Trump is currently leading President Biden in five crucial battleground states, according to a massive release of new poll results published by the New York Times on Monday.
The Republican candidate’s recent strength is attributed to a growing desire for change among voters who are disillusioned with the economy and the ongoing war in Gaza, particularly among young, black, and Hispanic voters. These groups have historically formed the core of the president’s Democratic coalition, yet Trump has made meaningful inroads with them, challenging their loyalty to the Democratic party.
The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer conducted surveys that placed Trump ahead of Biden among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup in five of the six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. In contrast, Biden only led in Wisconsin among registered voters.
The polls did find that the race was closer among “likely voters,” indicating that while Trump still leads in five states, Biden has a slight lead in Michigan and is closely behind in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania among those most likely to turn out on election date. These states, all won by Biden in 2020, are critical for his re-election prospects; victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin would likely secure his position, provided he wins all other states he did four years ago.
The survey also explored a hypothetical matchup that included minor-party candidates and independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who garnered an average of 10% of the vote across these states, drawing support from both major-party candidates approximately equally.
Despite significant events like a 25% increase in the stock market, the start of Trump’s criminal trial, and Biden’s campaign spending millions on ads, these factors seem to have had little impact on shifting voter sentiment.
Polls show that pressing issues such as the cost of living, immigration policies, and Israel’s actions in Gaza continue to weigh heavily on the electorate’s sentiment. Despite a surge in momentum following his State of the Union address in March, Biden continues to lag in national and battleground state polls.
Voter dissatisfaction with the state of the country is profound, with a majority expressing doubts about Biden’s capability to effect significant improvements in American life. “Nearly 70 percent of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes — or even to be torn down entirely,” reflecting a deep-seated desire for transformative change.
Only a small fraction of Biden’s supporters, about 13 percent, believe he will bring major changes in a second term. The Times/Siena surveys suggest Biden is losing ground particularly among young, black and Hispanic voters — key demographics for the Democratic base. Each group expresses a strong desire for fundamental societal changes, rather than a simple return to normalcy, and few believe Biden is capable of making even minor beneficial changes.
Trump and Biden are virtually tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, though each group heavily favored Biden in the 2020 election. Notably, Trump has managed to capture more than 20 percent of the black vote, a level of support that would be the highest for any Republican candidate since the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
The polls suggest that Trump’s appeal among young and nonwhite voters could significantly alter the electoral map, particularly in diverse Sun Belt states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, where black and Hispanic voters were instrumental in Biden’s 2020 victories.
Despite these challenges, Biden remains within competitive range, largely retaining his base among older and white voters, who are less inclined to demand radical changes and more likely to prioritize democracy as a key voting issue. Consequently, Biden remains competitive in the predominantly white Northern swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Economic issues, however, remain a critical concern for voters, with one-quarter citing the economy and cost of living as their primary issues. These factors continue to pose significant challenges to Biden’s re-election prospects, with more than half of voters still rating the economy as “poor,” only a slight improvement since the last poll in November.
Nearly 40 percent of Trump’s supporters identify the economy or the cost of living as the most critical issues in the election. The Biden administration’s assertions of a robust economy have not resonated with many voters, underscoring a disconnect that may influence electoral outcomes.
With less than six months until the election, there is still time for an improving economy to boost Biden’s standing. While early-stage polls have historically not been definitive indicators of election outcomes, Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic-leaning young, black, and Hispanic voters suggests a potential shift in the political landscape. These voters, characterized as irregular and disengaged, are not deeply invested in the political process and may change their views as the campaign progresses.
In a potentially frustrating finding for Democrats, nearly 20 percent of voters blame Biden more than Trump for the Supreme Court’s decision in 2022 to overturn Roe v. Wade. This perception presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the Biden campaign as it intensifies its efforts.
The issue of abortion appears to be a significant vulnerability for Trump, with a majority of voters in battleground states favoring legal abortion. This issue could play a pivotal role in the election, particularly as the Biden campaign emphasizes Trump’s association with the Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade. For now, voters prefer Biden over Trump to handle abortion issues by a margin of 49 to 38 percent.
The larger challenge for Biden may ultimately come from voters who are disillusioned and disaffected, desiring fundamental changes to American society or a complete overhaul of the political and economic systems. Previously, these anti-system voters were reliably Democratic, but Trump’s anti-establishment populist conservatism has upended this dynamic. Seventy percent of voters believe Trump would bring major changes or completely tear down the existing systems, compared with only 24 percent who believe Biden would do the same. While many voters have reservations about Trump personally, 43 percent believe he would bring positive changes to the country, compared with 35 percent who anticipate negative outcomes.
Trump performs exceptionally well among voters who believe the political and economic systems need to be dismantled, leading by 32 points among this group. These voters, representing about 15 percent of registered voters, are particularly likely to have shifted their support away from Biden. In contrast, Biden retains nearly all of his 2020 supporters, who believe only minor changes are necessary.
These change-oriented voters are not necessarily seeking a more ideologically progressive agenda. In the last Times/Siena poll of the same states, only 11 percent of registered voters thought Biden was not progressive or liberal enough. While many liberal or progressive voters desire major changes, relatively few are defecting from Biden. Instead, his losses are concentrated among moderate and conservative Democratic-leaning voters, who think the system needs major changes or to be torn down altogether. Trump wins just 2 percent of Biden’s “very liberal” 2020 voters who think the system at least needs major changes, compared with 16 percent of those who are moderate or conservative.
One notable exception is the issue of Israel’s war in Gaza, where most of Biden’s challenges appear to come from his left. About 13 percent of the voters who say they voted for Biden last time but do not plan to do so again cited his foreign policy or the war in Gaza as the most important issue to their vote. Just 17 percent of these voters reported sympathizing with Israel over the Palestinians.
Trump’s trial in Manhattan, related to charges that he falsified business records to cover up a hush-money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels, was underway when the polls began in late April. However, the survey indicated that the trial has had little impact on his political fortunes so far. Only 29 percent of voters in battleground states said they were paying “a lot” of attention to Trump’s legal troubles, and 35 percent thought that the trial was likely to end in a conviction.
