Secretary of State Marco Rubio is outperforming Vice President J.D. Vance in several hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups, according to a new Emerson College/The Hill poll released as speculation grows over who could eventually succeed President Donald Trump.
The survey found Rubio leading former Vice President Kamala Harris 48% to 43% in a theoretical general election matchup. Rubio posted the same 48% to 43% advantage against Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).
Vance, meanwhile, narrowly led Ocasio-Cortez 46% to 44% but trailed Harris by four percentage points.
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from Aug. 16 to Aug. 17 and carried a margin of error of three percentage points.
Rubio also performed better than Vance against several other prominent Democrats being discussed as potential 2028 contenders.
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) led Rubio 47% to 44%, while holding a wider 49% to 44% advantage over Vance.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg performed equally well against both Republicans, defeating Rubio and Vance by identical 49% to 44% margins in the hypothetical contests.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom also led both Trump administration officials.
Newsom received 48% against Rubio’s 46%, while the California governor led Vance 49% to 44%.
The results come as attention increasingly turns toward the Republican Party’s future after Trump, even though the 2028 presidential election remains more than two years away.
Vance has frequently been viewed as a natural successor to Trump after serving as his running mate in 2024 and becoming vice president.
Rubio, however, has maintained a high-profile position in the administration as secretary of state and has continued to build his national profile.
Trump has publicly praised both men and previously described them as a political “dream team.”
The Washington Post reported earlier this month that Trump privately told donors, “at the end of the day, we need to elect JD” in 2028.
Trump later pushed back on suggestions that he had already settled on an endorsement.
The president praised Vance but said it was “way too early to even be thinking about” backing a candidate for 2028.
The White House has also rejected suggestions that Rubio and Vance are engaged in an internal rivalry, per the Daily Mail.
“Why is the legacy media obsessed with driving a wedge between Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio that does not exist?” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told the Daily Mail.
“There is one camp – President Trump’s camp – and the entire administration is working together to execute the President’s agenda,” she added.
While no major Republican contender has formally launched a 2028 campaign, the latest polling offers an early glimpse at how Rubio and Vance could perform against some of the Democratic Party’s most prominent potential candidates.
