Well-known national pollster and liberal Nate Silver has published updates to his forecasts for the 2024 presidential general election, putting Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump ahead of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. The pollster’s model has for weeks shown Vice President Harris ahead of Trump in her chances of winning the presidency, but recently the predicted trend has switched for the candidates, with Trump taking the lead on Thursday.
Silver’s general election prediction model shows the former president to be at a 52.4% chance of winning the electoral college against Harris, who’s at 47.3%, per a post from InteractivePolls that covered Silver’s reporting. The candidates have seen a rapid alteration in their relative positions according to the model, with Silver in a previous update which was made Wednesday that Harris had a 50.5% chance of winning the election while Trump trailed her at 49.2%.
Trump is up in five of seven swing states, per the same report, with his chances of winning as high as 65% to 35% against Harris in North Carolina, according to the reported numbers. Harris leads in two swing states, Wisconsin and Michigan, but by only a comparatively narrow margin of 6% and a stronger lead of 16% in the respective states.
Polls since Harris launched her campaign last month have been very favorable for her, with many showing Harris quickly closing in on Trump’s initial lead in national polls and is now leading him according to the Real Clear Politics general election polling average.
Silver, in his Silver Bulletin publication, stated that the forecast was changed to take into account a “convention bounce adjustment” following the DNC National Convention, having found that Harris has fallen from a 3.8 point lead to a 3.3 point lead in the national polls he uses. The pollster went on to say that a big concern for Harris right now is Pennsylvania, where polls haven’t recently shown her being in the lead in a state that could be the tipping point for the election. Trump, who held a rally in Johnstown, Pennsylvania Friday afternoon, is aggressively campaigning in the state.
These forecast updates come off the heels of the Democratic National Convention last week, despite many on the left having thought that this event would cause a new surge in enthusiasm for the candidate, such a boost has not materialized as hoped, according to Silver. To combat what could be stagnating enthusiasm, the Harris campaign engaged in their first press interview since the campaign launched, with both Kamala Harris and Democratic VP pick Governor Tim Walz sitting with CNN anchor Dana Bash Thursday night.
In the interview, Harris claimed that her positions on issues facing the country “have not changed,” however she stated that she was supportive of security at the southern border and that she was intent on signing a bipartisan border security bill that would continue the construction former President Trump’s border wall. Vice President Harris has often criticized Trump for his border policies and for his desire to build a barrier along the southern border in the past.
