Vice President J.D. Vance said he does not expect Republicans to suffer a historic midterm defeat in November, despite polls and prediction markets showing Democrats with an opportunity to capture both chambers of Congress.
Vance addressed the Republican Party’s difficult political environment during an interview with the Daily Mail following a campaign appearance in North Carolina.
Asked about his “worst nightmare” for the elections, Vance pointed to the 2006 midterms, when Republicans lost control of the House and Senate during former President George W. Bush’s second term.
“I just don’t think 2006 is on the table,” Vance said.
The vice president argued that Democrats have moved much further to the left since that election and said Republicans have a stronger record to present to voters.
Vance described Republicans defying the normal midterm trend as his best-case scenario. The party controlling the White House has historically lost congressional seats during a president’s first midterm election.
Republican officials are nevertheless confronting unfavorable national polling, difficult Senate contests and voter concerns about the economy, gas prices and the ongoing war with Iran.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll placed President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 32%, the lowest of his political career. The survey found widespread dissatisfaction with the cost of living and the administration’s handling of the Iran conflict.
Prediction markets have also shifted sharply toward Democrats. Figures cited by the Daily Mail showed Kalshi traders giving Democrats a 91 percent chance of capturing the House and a 64 percent chance of winning the Senate.
Prediction-market prices fluctuate and are not traditional public-opinion polls, but they reflect growing expectations that Republicans could lose their congressional majorities.
Vance insisted that economic conditions have improved under Trump, pointing to new jobs and domestic investment. He acknowledged that the administration still has considerable work ahead before Americans feel the full effects of its economic agenda.
The vice president has increased his campaign travel as Republicans attempt to close polling gaps before Election Day. During the past month, he has appeared with Republican candidates in North Carolina, Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and Maine.
In North Carolina, Vance campaigned for Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman. Whatley is running against former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper for an open Senate seat.
Recent surveys have shown Cooper leading Whatley, including a YouGov poll that placed the Democrat ahead by double digits.
Vance used his North Carolina appearance to portray Cooper as beholden to the Democratic Party’s left wing. He highlighted Cooper’s vetoes of legislation concerning voter identification, voter-roll maintenance and parental rights while serving as governor.
“We do not need a person who bends the knee to the far left,” Vance told supporters.
Republicans faced a similarly difficult environment in 2006, when dissatisfaction with the Iraq War, Bush’s approval ratings and economic concerns helped Democrats gain 31 House seats and six Senate seats.
Vance argued that the Iran conflict differs significantly from the Iraq War, noting that the earlier conflict had become a yearslong ground campaign that killed thousands of American service members.
“Even Americans who disagree with us on the Iran situation,” Vance said, understand that it is “not anything close to Iraq.”
The vice president’s comments underscore the stakes facing Republicans as they try to preserve Trump’s congressional majorities and prevent Democrats from controlling Capitol Hill during the final two years of his presidency.
