The Republican National Committee (RNC) is warning GOP lawmakers against distancing themselves from President Donald Trump as candidates decide how closely to align their campaigns with the president ahead of November’s midterm elections.
RNC national press secretary Natalie Baldassarre argued that Republican candidates who keep Trump at arm’s length could risk depressing turnout among some of the party’s less-frequent voters.
Trump remains particularly important for mobilizing “mid- to low-propensity voters,” Baldassarre said, describing him as the party’s strongest turnout driver.
“If members are choosing to keep an arm’s length from the president, they risk alienating their base,” Baldassarre said.
She estimated that candidates could risk losing participation from 15% to 20% of key Republican voters if those voters conclude that the candidate is insufficiently supportive of Trump’s policies.
The warning comes as some Republican candidates in competitive districts weigh whether appearing alongside Trump will help them energize the GOP base or make it harder to appeal to independent and swing voters.
Politico surveyed dozens of Republicans about the upcoming party convention, with many declining to attend as candidates cited campaign commitments, scheduling conflicts and other considerations. Some Republicans in closely contested races have also been cautious about tying their campaigns too closely to the president.
The RNC, however, is making Trump central to its national midterm strategy.
Trump is scheduled to speak during both nights of the Republican Party’s Sept. 9-10 midterm convention in Dallas, an unusual election-year gathering intended to rally the party before voters head to the polls.
The president had initially been expected to headline one evening but will now appear both Wednesday and Thursday.
Vice President JD Vance is also scheduled for a major speaking role, along with Republican congressional leaders, administration officials and candidates competing in several closely watched races.
The preliminary program includes more than 100 speakers and events over the two-night convention.
Among those expected to participate are House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for US Senate.
The convention represents part of a broader Republican effort to encourage Trump voters to participate in a midterm election in which the president himself will not appear on the ballot.
Midterm elections have historically presented a turnout challenge for the party controlling the White House, and Republican officials are seeking to retain control of Congress during the final two years of Trump’s current term.
Trump has said he intends to campaign extensively for Republican candidates during the closing stretch.
The president told Republican lawmakers this week that he expects to make numerous campaign appearances while focusing on roughly three dozen important races. His planned stops include Alaska, where Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces a competitive challenge.
Republicans are also looking to Trump’s political operation for financial support.
MAGA Inc., the super PAC aligned with Trump, entered the general-election campaign Saturday with a $10 million advertising commitment in the Texas Senate race.
The spending is divided between advertisements supporting Paxton and advertisements opposing Democratic nominee James Talarico, according to reports on the expenditure.
MAGA Inc. reported having more than $403 million available at the end of July, making the group a potentially significant source of campaign spending as Republicans try to defend congressional seats around the country.
Trump endorsed Paxton during the Republican primary against longtime Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), helping make Texas one of the clearest examples of the president’s continued influence over GOP contests, per the New York Post.
Polling elsewhere shows why Republicans are preparing for competitive races even in states Trump carried comfortably in the 2024 presidential election.
In Iowa, for example, an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey conducted Aug. 31 through Sept. 1 found Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rob Sand leading Republican Zach Lahn 49% to 46% among 750 likely voters.
The same poll showed Trump with a 44% job approval rating in Iowa, while 52% disapproved of his performance.
Those numbers illustrate the strategic question facing Republican candidates: how to preserve enthusiasm among Trump’s political base while competing for voters who may have reservations about the administration.
The RNC’s position is that distancing from Trump carries its own substantial risk.
Party officials argue that millions of voters who do not regularly participate in elections were drawn into the Republican coalition by Trump and may be less motivated to vote when he is not personally on the ballot.
The president’s expanded role at the Dallas convention reflects that calculation.
Rather than minimizing Trump’s presence as November approaches, the national party is placing him at the center of its turnout operation and publicly warning Republican lawmakers that creating distance between themselves and the president could cost them support from voters they will need on Election Day.
